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Only weeks ago some inspiring forecasts were made about the Bangladesh economy and the same issued from local as well as external sources. The outlook for the economy's growth in the current fiscal year was thought to be notably higher than the last year's one. Bangladesh Bank particularly forecasted a growth of 6.3 to 6.8 per cent based mainly on agriculture output projections. In its earlier projection, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also expressed high hope of a relatively higher growth in fiscal year 2005-6 based on improved performance of the agriculture sector. But the agriculture sector is likely to be hit the hardest only some days from now that could substantially reduce the country's irri-boro rice production and along with it the prospects of the higher economic growth rate.
The irri-boro rice is a major rice crop in the country. The irri-boro harvests feed the people for about six months. A big drop in its production can mean serious stresses in the life of its numerous producers who are largely subsistence farmers. Poverty conditions could worsen under such circumstances. Besides, a severe pressure would be put on the foreign currency reserve to import foodgrains on an urgent basis. The reserve is already depleting at a worrying rate from the need to import petroleum products at exceptionally higher prices. The higher import costs of petroleum, so far, could be somehow taken care of by some means. However, if an equally unavoidable additional pressure is put on the reserve to carry out large scale import of foodgrains, then that could invite a sort of calamity . The macro economic balances in that event would come under very serious strains indeed . Thus, top managers of the economy need to get their act together and go all-out to try and preclude the disaster that seems poised to strike the country's agricultural production.
Farmers across the country are now in deep throes from their inability to irrigate their lands. The production of aman rice can depend on rains. But the same is not the case with irri-boro rice ; its production is entirely dependent on irrigation when there are no rains. Some 4.2 million hectares of land comes under the dry season paddy cultivation to produce some 15 million tons of rice. But real fears are showing up that a shortfall of some 12 per cent may occur in the production of irri-boro rice. The amount of the shortfall could be some some 1.8 million metric tons of rice valued at around US$ 550 million worth of food imports. Or, in other words, government may be faced with the ill prospect of spending an additional $550 million in the present year to import food when it is already burdened in an extraordinary manner to import fuel oil at rising costs.
The main reason for the likely production loss of foodgrains is the inability to run irrigation pumps. The pumps are run by both diesel and power. The number of the diesel operated pumps are far greater in number. But diesel has been in very short supply in many parts of the country. It has been selling at double its reasonable price in these areas and in some places it could not be purchased even though the buyers were prepared to pay the unreasonable price. The energy adviser, confronted with the crisis, promised a normalization in the supply and price of diesel but this is yet to happen. Meanwhile, even one day lost in irrigating the fields with irri-boro seedlings can be fatal. It can lead to withering away of the seedlings which would require transplantation later on and continuous irrigation water till at least the middle of April to survive. But in many places the farmers could not even go through with their activities to prepare the fields for transplantation at this on going peak production time of irri-boro rice as a consequence of not having irrigation water due to inability to run the irrigation pumps from scarcity of diesel and its prohibitive prices. Irrigation work with the power driven pumps has also become equally difficult as power supply in the rural areas remains very poor. In many areas, power is not available for 10-12 hours every day and in some areas power is only available for 3-4 hours. And the power supply position is expected to turn the worst as the summer season nears. What would happen to irrigation activities with power driven pumps, then, is anybody's guess. Thus, from all of these developments, a setback to agricultural production now looks like a certainty.
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