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THE impoverished Himalayan Kingdom of Nepal has already witnessed a month of peculiar political crisis. King Gyanendra grabbed power on February 1 firing the four party coalition government of Sher Bahadur Deuba. He imposed emergency rule and suspended civil liberties including press freedom. His step has drawn international condemnation. In response to international criticism Gyanendra says that he was forced to act to tackle an increasingly deadly Maoist revolt and has given himself three years to restore peace and democracy. The world still remains unconvinced by this refute of Gyanendra.
All the frontline and powerful political leaders have been kept under house arrest. They have been detained for fear they could rally popular protests against the king's move. First they have been detained for one month. Now it has been extended for two months. The detained leaders include Girja Prasad Koirala, Nepal's first Prime Minister after election in 1991 who heads the centrist Nepali Congress Party, Sher Bahadur Deuba, head of coalition government lately sacked, Bharat Mohan Adhikari, former Finance Minister, Puna Bahadur Khaka, sacked home minister, Madhav Kumar Nepal, General Secretary of Nepal Communist Party (United Marxist and Leninist) and Amit Sherchan, leader of the communist United Front Nepal. The arrest of these leaders foments public anger against the king.
India has quietly stopped military aid to Nepal after King Gyanendra seized power. New Delhi, a major aid donor and key arms supplier to Nepal army, is viewing different aspects of ties with Nepal after the sacked government had suspended civil rights. Indian government mouthpiece says, "As of now, many aspects of our bilateral relations are being reassured and reviewed but as of a military supplies are concerned they are on hold as of now."
India has been pumping military aid to the poorly equipped Royal Nepal Army to help it hunt down Maoist rebels, who have been fighting to replace the monarch with a Communist Republic for the past nine years. It has supplied armed trucks and helicopters and given training to the Nepali Army that is fighting an increasingly bloody Maoist revolt in which some twelve thousand people have died. The insurgency claimed so far 170 teachers, 361 students and 313 children were wounded during the past nine years of anti-government move. Education and Sport Minister Radha Krishna Maisnali said, 'due to the conflict, violence and terrorism, the education sector has been badly affected and students are barred from getting education fearlessly.'
New Delhi together with Washington and London, other two major backers of the Nepali army in the war with the rebels urged the monarch to roll back his February 1 move, restore democracy, free politicians and lift curb on the media. But the King wants to justify his decision saying it was necessary to protect democracy from the grave risk posed by the Maoist insurgency and political instability. Maoists have sponsored an indefinite nationwide road blockade for the past ten days to oppose the King's move.
The rebels who draw their inspiration from Chinese revolutionary leader Mao Zedong are running out of ideas in their nine-year war reduced to nuisance tactics like the truck burning in campaign to dislodge the monarch. The army in turn is bogged down using hundreds of soldiers.
The rebels control most of the countryside but are unable to gain control of Kathmandu and other cities in this nation of 23 million people. The 78,000-strong army, which has some 30,000 soldiers, is guarding Kathmandu. It is virtually impossible to sweep through the mountainous countryside. So the army remains confined to the cities and district headquarters. Based on intelligence and rebel interrogations, the Maoist strength in the country includes 95,000 armed guerrillas and 25,000 potential fighters who can be armed as needed and 14000 political activists, an army official said on condition of anonymity. That pits 50,000 soldiers deployed outside Kathmandu against a rebel fighting force of some 35,000, most of them poorly armed but invisible and very effective as fighters.
Political analysts of South East Asia are deeply concerned with Nepal's political crisis, as it has already put negative impact on the SAARC. India has already dangled a clue for not attending the SAARC Summit which was scheduled to be held in Dhaka on February 7and 8. It indicated mainly the political crisis of Nepal. Yes, India's stance in the South East Asia attaches much importance to establishment of peace in the region. India has close ties with her small and poor neighbour Nepal. There is no visa barrier between these two SAARC neighbours. Even Nepalese can find their place in Indian civil service. In this perspective, King Gyanendra can do virtually nothing without India's nodding. Maoists are spread all over the mountainous regions except some important cities.
There has been no major clash between the rebels and the army for a year and hide and seek game has been continuing since the rebels lost some 500 fighters during a failed attempt to take a military base in the mountain town of Beni, 280 kilometres west of Kathmandu. But if a political solution would seem the only way out, the rebels have refused to join peace talks. Meanwhile, since February 1 when King Gyanendra named the Maoists as constituting the main reasons for sacking the government and taking over the country, the government has not appeared interested in talks either.
Until five years ago, the Maoists were seen as a fringe force, which looted guns from the police and claimed to give quick justice to villagers. Now they have upgraded their weaponry. They seized the weapons mostly from the security forces.
Since 1996 the Maoists movement has grown into a terrorist army with regional links and a serious threat to the state. It has not only claimed 12,000 lives but also pushed back economic and human development by years. Parliament was dissolved by a democratically elected Prime Minister in 2002. Since then, while the King urged political consensus to form an all-party government to hold election and negotiate with the Maoists, the parties failed to reach any agreement. Nepal is now pressurizing the Maoists militants politically in order to bring them into the political mainstream and resume its course of multi-party democracy. But the way it has been handling the crisis could not bear fruit. The military actions may contribute to the possibility of a Maoist victory. Without India's military help, it would be a tough job on the part of the King to face the Maoist insurgency.
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The writer is an NGO worker
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