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THIS prospect has animated both Myanmar political activists living in exile in neighbouring Thailand and regional human-rights monitors.
Judgement day will be November 12, when envoy Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, is due to brief the UN General Assembly about the political climate in Myanmar. He is now in that Southeast Asian country and has met with Prime Minister Khin Nyunt.
"The report he will deliver to the UN General Assembly will be important, because if very critical, it will put the military government under tremendous pressure," said Bo Kyi of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a group of activists who served time in Myanmar prisons based on their political views.
"Pinheiro's report and the response it receives at UN sessions will help clarify world opinion," added Sunai Phasuk, an analyst at Forum-Asia, a regional human-rights lobby based in Bangkok. "If the Burmese government is denounced, it will hamper its efforts to be given a second chance to reform."
The visit will make it difficult for the Myanmar government to deflect charges against its humanrights abuses, Soe Aung of the Network for Democracy and Development, a group of exiles from Myanmar based in Thailand, said in an interview. "Pinheiro is in a position this time to force [Yangon] to be held accountable."
There are ample hints to suggest that Pinheiro, a Brazilian academic, will be far from charitable toward the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as Myanmar's junta calls itself.
When he last visited Myanmar in March, Pinheiro ended his trip in anger after he discovered that a room deemed safe for his interviews with political prisoners had actually been bugged.
On May 30, thugs linked to the SPDC mounted an attack on opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and leaders of her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), in a town north of Yangon.
This attack, which triggered global outrage, further eroded the SPDC's credibility, as did its move to place Nobel Peace laureate Suu Kyi and NLD leaders in military custody for, what they deemed, their "protection".
Pinheiro's week-long visit, his sixth trip to Myanmar, will be the first since these three incidents occurred.
There are hints that he will test the SPDC's commitments to political reform and human rights based on where they stand on the freedom allowed Suu Kyi, who has since been moved to house arrest, and the NLD members still in prison.
Human-rights activists are also confident that Pinheiro will again turn the heat on Yangon to release the estimated 1,300 political prisoners, including close to 100 women, being held in the 39 prisons across Myanmar.
A year ago, Pinheiro used some of the strongest language to date to criticise Myanmar during his report to the UN General Assembly. The political crimes Yangon had committed up to that point included the rape by soldiers of some 625 women and girls in the country's eastern Shan state.
The human-rights violations in this Southeast Asian nation include the forced conscription of child soldiers, the sending of members of ethnic communities into forced labour camps, the crushing of political opponents and the holding of political prisoners.
Myanmar watchers consider the criticism put forth in 2002 - which was denounced by the SPDC a significant shift when compared with the language used to discuss Myanmar at the UN General Assembly over the past 10 years.
Some feel that a more severe critique by Pinheiro at the UN sessions this month may pave the way for a situation the junta has been trying to avoid - Myanmar's case being brought before the Security Council.
"From what we understand, Pinheiro is ready to place the Burma issue with the Security Council," Bo Kyi said. "That will force the international community to take serious note of Burma. It will not look good for the SPDC." (The junta officially renamed the country Myanmar in 1989, but many opponents of the regime prefer the old name, Burma.)
Currently, Myanmar is taking a beating on the international stage due to harsh economic sanctions imposed since August by the US government. In October, during a review of the political climate in Myanmar, Washington threatened Yangon with more sanctions.
The European Union has imposed sanctions on Myanmar since 1996. But these measures ranging from an arms embargo and visa bans on SPDC officials to the freezing of assets - are to be reviewed next May.
Human-rights activists believe that a Pinheiro report more damning of Myanmar would strengthen Washington's and the EU's positions toward Yangon.
But that would not be the case for a group of Asian nations, who critics say are marching to the rescue of one of Southeast Asia's most brutal regimes. "A critical report at the UN this month will be deeply embarrassing for these Asian nations, since it will come before the Burma Forum for like-minded countries," said Sunai, the human-rights analyst with Forum-Asia.
Bangkok plans to host a meeting of this forum in late November. The countries in the group are Myanmar, Thailand, the other eight members of the Association of Southeast Asian nations, China and India,
"These Asian countries, led by Thailand, are trying to rehabilitate the SPDC," said Sunai. "The Thai government, in fact, is trying to get the EU to lift its sanctions on Burma despite the SPDC's record of abuses. That is how sympathetic they are."
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Inter Press Service
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