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NEPAL'S Maoist insurgency, which began in 1996, shows no signs of abating. Armed rebels continue to kill security personnel as well as civilians as their outlawed leaders issue statements - from their hideouts saying they will return to the negotiating table only if the United Nations is invited to be involved in the peace process. To prove that their threats are not hollow, Maoists shot dead exactly 12 security personnel on the day that Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was to host a party to celebrate King Gyanendra's 58th birthday last week. One of those killed was a senior police officer based in the capital, who was shot in broad daylight, making people more frightened than ever before. (Royal birthday celebrations continued nevertheless.)
"The Maoists are a bigger problem than the king," Deuba said in an interview in the Nepali Times weekly (July 2-8). But he has yet to show how he will respond to the Maoist issue.
The first formal talks with the Maoists - who are fighting to establish a republic in place of the constitutional monarchy - started in August 2001, about a month after Deuba became prime minister for the first time. He was later sacked by the king for "incompetence". But they broke down, giving the Maoists an opportunity to reorganise. The second attempt to bring the Maoists to the negotiating table produced a ceasefire agreement in January 2003, three months after King Gyanendra staged a constitutional coup and appointed a new prime minister to head the royal government.
The ceasefire lasted for seven months, but broke down amid reports that soldiers of the Royal Nepal Army (RNA) shot dead 19 detainees, suspected Maoist rebels, in the eastern hill district of Ramechhap. On the basis of a probe conducted on the demand of human-rights groups, the RNA subsequently admitted that some soldiers had gone beyond their mandate.
The existing sense of mutual mistrust in the country is both deep and pervasive. Besides, the Maoists' trust in Deuba is not what it used to be, because he is now seen as the king's appointee (since June 2). Hence the need to have a third party as a witness to the peace process. Deuba wants to begin this process as early as possible as the king has publicly directed him to end the ongoing conflict and create a stable environment so that parliamentary elections can take place by the end of this Nepali year 2061 (mid-April 2005).
The Nepali intelligentsia, together with most of the mainstream political parties, do not see any harm in involving a third party, preferably the United Nations, in the mediation process as local efforts have been fruitless to date. Even Padma Ratna Tuladhar, a prominent left-leaning politician who has worked as a facilitator, has accepted that cooperation with external parties and individuals has become essential.
Editors Society Nepal, in a recent resolution, urged the government to seek UN assistance "in mediation and peace-building". In its view, the present state of helplessness must be ended forthwith if further losses of lives are to be avoided. More than 10,000 people have died in the struggle, and tens of thousands have been injured. The insurgency affects all 75 districts within Nepal, three of which are in the bowl-shaped Kathmandu Valley, and the future for the poverty-stricken country's 24.8 million people cannot be bright as long as the insurgency rages.
President Girija Prasad Koirala of the Nepali Congress, the largest democratic party, with centrist credentials, told an audience in the eastern town of Biratnagar on the weekend that the political alliance of four parties he currently heads will initiate "open dialogue" with the Maoists if the UN agrees to become a partner by ensuring security. "We are seeking guarantees for security since the rebels do not trust the government's security arrangements and it is not possible for us to go to Maoist strongholds" without UN security guarantees in place.
Even Deuba's main partner in the ruling coalition, the United Marxist Leninist party (UML) - Nepal's largest left-wing party - is not opposed to UN participation in efforts aimed at resolving the drawn-out conflict. The Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) is an exception: it is known for its pro-palace stance. Although Deuba has been non-committal, his colleagues in the Nepali Congress (Democratic), a breakaway faction of the main Congress party, do not see any reason to resist the plan to seek UN assistance as long as the government takes care of the security concerns of Nepal's two immediate neighbours.
"The UN is at the service of the member states," said Matthew Kahane, UN resident coordinator to Nepal. He has dismissed speculation that the UN is trying to impose itself on any mediation, but expresses the world body's concerns from time to time in the context of Secretary General Kofi Annan's apprehensions about the deteriorating situation in Nepal.
In his report to the Security Council in early June on the protection of civilians in armed conflict, Annan listed Nepal as one of four countries providing "the worst examples where civilians have been suffering". Annan has offered his good offices to find a peaceful way out.
Samuel Tamrat, Annan's special envoy, has visited Nepal four times since the breakdown of talks at the end of August 2003. The UN's assessment of Nepal's situation is perhaps based on the challenges the UN's office in Kathmandu and field units in far-flung districts have faced in recent years. "Continued attempts to force the UN agencies to pay contributions put the future of our development programs [in Nepal] at risk," a joint statement by UN agencies said on March 12. The situation remains unchanged.
There have been other offers of mediation. Switzerland said on June 6 that it was prepared to step into the ring as a mediator. Finland is equally keen to be of help to Nepal. "Finland is interested in assisting Nepal," said Pauli Mustonen, head of the Finnish Embassy in Kathmandu, adding that "it is for the government of Nepal to take a decision". Another Nordic country, Norway, has been deeply involved in the peace process between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam.
India, Nepal's southern neighbour sharing a porous 1,800-kilometre-plus land border, is also open to play some sort of role. Ambassador Shyam Saran, who will become India's next foreign secretary on August 1, has said New Delhi is prepared to listen, should Kathmandu make an overture.
Unlike India, China considers the insurgency Nepal's internal problem, and there have not been any reports of rebels taking shelter in Tibet or in mainland China. "Although there are some difficulties now being faced by Nepal, we believe that Nepal has the capability and great wisdom to handle well its domestic affairs and appreciate all efforts conducive to the restoration of peace and stability in Nepal," said Sun Heping, the Chinese ambassador in Kathmandu, on May 14. China has reportedly assured Nepali authorities that it will provide all "legitimate assistance" on request.
The question remains, though, whether Nepal should get any one of its immediate neighbours involved. This is a delicate question and has become an issue of debate in public forums. "When both parties think about third-party mediation, Nepal should not think of bringing India or China between the two warring factions as they might be motivated by personal benefits," British Ambassador Keith Bloomfield told a Kathmandu audience recently.
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