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MANILA, Oct 25 (AFP): A severe outbreak of avian influenza could cost the Asia-Pacific region between 250 billion and 290 billion dollars in the short term, according to preliminary estimates by the Asian Development Bank.
The Manila-based bank believes that even a relatively mild pandemic could cost the region around 90-110 billion dollars due to the effects of reduced consumption, investment and trade.
The loss of workers due to death and incapacity could cost an additional 15 billion dollars, it added.
In a recent interview with AFP, the ADB's principal health specialist Jacques Jeugmans said: "We are still working on a number of scenarios for the region."
According to ADB preliminary estimates, the various stages of a growing human pandemic would have widespread and serious implications for economic development and the welfare of people in the region and beyond.
Jeugmans said many economic activities would be brought to a halt, while the health systems of most countries would be overwhelmed.
He said the delivery of services would be severely disrupted with a knock-on effect right throughout society.
"We are examining all scenarios to try and determine how to respond. In the worst-case scenario you run the risk of society coming to a standstill," he noted.
The current outbreak of bird flu, which began at the end of 2003, has already had an impact on poor and rural communities throughout Asia.
Almost 140 million domestic birds have either died or been destroyed, and more than 60 people are known to have died.
As demonstrated by the SARS crisis in 2003, the present outbreak may evolve and have a devastating effect, the ADB said.
"It is critical that prevention activities are undertaken in a coordinated manner, since epidemics such as this one do not respect national boundaries," Jeugmans said.
"It is also important to share information about outbreaks to ensure an effective and quick response.
"If we want to contain the avian flu epidemic and prevent a pandemic, we need to work with local communities, where farmers who observe their chickens dying in the backyards are on the front line, but also most at risk."
He said countries need significant support-both financial and technical-to strengthen animal and human epidemiological surveillance systems, develop effective and safe systems for rapid response to reported outbreaks, and treat the disease.
"The ADB is well placed to play an important role in strengthening a regional response to prevent and control the potential pandemic," Jeugmans said.
"We are based in the region, are already working with all the countries that have experienced outbreaks, have the ability to take the multi- sectoral approach that this challenge needs, and have the experience of undertaking complex projects."
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